Monthly prototype

New Misery Index

A local dashboard that turns monthly public data into a human-centered stress score across affordability, family pressure, community, trust, and future outlook.

940 monthly observations Latest 2026-04 100% evidence coverage Snapshot May 28, 10:23 PM

Local snapshot

Latest complete month 2026-04

NMI 77.4 /100 Very high overall strain

Snapshot built May 28, 2026 10:23 PM 100% evidence coverage

Very high strain Economic Agency 16.4

Moderate strain Family 7.6

Very high strain Community 15.0

Very high strain Trust 20.0

Very high strain Hopelessness 18.4

NMI vs. classic misery index

Classic = unemployment + CPI inflation

NMI, 0-100 Classic misery index, rescaled for this chart

Start 1948 End 2026

Showing 940 month(s), 1948-01 to 2026-04

Hover preview 2026-04

History CSV Component CSV

77.4NMI Very highOverall strain 8.1Classic raw 100%Evidence coverage

Economic Agency 16.4/20 19/19 signalsFamily 7.6/20 7/7 signalsCommunity 15.0/20 4/4 signalsTrust 20.0/20 4/4 signalsHopelessness 18.4/20 3/3 signals

Signal	Pillar	Raw value	Eff. weight	Misery	Review links
Household cash buffer	Economic Agency	2.60 Percent of disposable income	13.ToString("F1")%	100%	Original Local CSV
Auto insurance five-year shock	Economic Agency	58.74 Five-year percent	10.ToString("F1")%	100%	Original Local CSV
Rent burden vs worker wage	Economic Agency	13.81 Index per worker-wage dollar	9.ToString("F1")%	100%	Original Local CSV
Auto insurance burden vs worker wage	Economic Agency	27.93 Index per worker-wage dollar	8.ToString("F1")%	100%	Original Local CSV
Credit card interest pressure	Economic Agency	21.00 APR percent	8.ToString("F1")%	100%	Original Local CSV
Rent five-year shock	Economic Agency	28.51 Five-year percent	8.ToString("F1")%	100%	Original Local CSV
Grocery five-year shock	Economic Agency	26.17 Five-year percent	7.000000000000001.ToString("F1")%	84%	Original Local CSV
Car repair burden vs worker wage	Economic Agency	13.93 Index per worker-wage dollar	5.5.ToString("F1")%	100%	Original Local CSV
Car repair five-year shock	Economic Agency	42.40 Five-year percent	5.ToString("F1")%	92%	Original Local CSV
Household energy-services five-year shock	Economic Agency	39.57 Five-year percent	6.5.ToString("F1")%	51%	Original Local CSV
Gas five-year shock	Economic Agency	43.53 Five-year percent	4.ToString("F1")%	66%	Original Local CSV
Gas burden vs worker wage	Economic Agency	0.13 Hours per gallon	4.5.ToString("F1")%	43%	Original Local CSV
Median home payment burden	Economic Agency	35.86 Percent of worker monthly pay	3.5000000000000004.ToString("F1")%	31%	Original Local CSV
Auto loan interest pressure	Economic Agency	7.36 APR percent	1.ToString("F1")%	32%	Original Local CSV
Household energy-services burden vs worker wage	Economic Agency	9.29 Index per worker-wage dollar	3.ToString("F1")%	9%	Original Local CSV
Credit card delinquency	Economic Agency	2.92 Percent	1.ToString("F1")%	20%	Original Local CSV
Forced extra work proxy	Economic Agency	5.20 Percent of employed	0.5.ToString("F1")%	30%	Original Local CSV
Auto loan delinquency	Economic Agency	1.48 Percent	0.5.ToString("F1")%	0%	Original Local CSV
Consumer debt service	Economic Agency	5.40 Percent of disposable income	2.ToString("F1")%	0%	Original Local CSV
Parent work time	Family	4.63 Hours per day	25.ToString("F1")%	74%	Original Local CSV Raw cache
Homework and school-support time	Family	0.06 Hours per day	10.ToString("F1")%	100%	Original Local CSV Raw cache
Parent-child play time	Family	0.32 Hours per day	15.ToString("F1")%	33%	Original Local CSV Raw cache
Multiple jobholders	Family	5.20 Percent of employed	15.ToString("F1")%	30%	Original Local CSV
Medical care CPI YoY	Family	2.54 YoY percent	5.ToString("F1")%	0%	Original Local CSV
Parent child-care time	Family	1.45 Hours per day	25.ToString("F1")%	0%	Original Local CSV Raw cache
Tuition, school fees, and childcare CPI YoY	Family	2.88 YoY percent	5.ToString("F1")%	0%	Original Local CSV
Socializing and communicating participation	Community	29.90 Percent participating	30.ToString("F1")%	100%	Original Local CSV Raw cache
Civic, religious, and organizational participation	Community	12.70 Percent participating	25.ToString("F1")%	100%	Original Local CSV Raw cache
Volunteering participation	Community	5.00 Percent participating	20.ToString("F1")%	100%	Original Local CSV Raw cache
School and child-event participation	Community	5.60 Percent participating	25.ToString("F1")%	0%	Original Local CSV Raw cache
Public trust in government	Trust	17.00 Percent	40.ToString("F1")%	100%	Original Local CSV
Economic confidence	Trust	49.80 Index	25.ToString("F1")%	100%	Original Local CSV
Community trust proxy	Trust	12.70 Percent participating	20.ToString("F1")%	100%	Original Local CSV Raw cache
Economic policy uncertainty	Trust	212.28 Index	15.ToString("F1")%	100%	Original Local CSV
Consumer confidence proxy	Hopelessness	53.58 Percentage balance	50.ToString("F1")%	100%	Original Local CSV
Suicide rate	Hopelessness	13.70 Deaths per 100,000	35.ToString("F1")%	100%	Original Local CSV
VIX monthly average	Hopelessness	19.81 Index	15.ToString("F1")%	48%	Original Local CSV
30-year mortgage rate reference	Economic Agency	6.33 Percent	0.ToString("F1")%	26%	Original Local CSV
Classic inflation reference, CPI-U YoY	Economic Agency	3.78 YoY percent	0.ToString("F1")%	67%	Original Local CSV
Grocery burden vs worker wage	Economic Agency	9.95 Index per worker-wage dollar	0.ToString("F1")%	0%	Original Local CSV
Labor exclusion	Economic Agency	4.30 Percent	0.ToString("F1")%	0%	Original Local CSV
Real worker wage level	Economic Agency	9.70 CPI-adjusted dollars	0.ToString("F1")%	0%	Original Local CSV
Average weekly hours reference	Community	34.30 Hours	0.ToString("F1")%	33%	Original Local CSV
Prime-age labor force participation reference	Community	83.80 Percent	0.ToString("F1")%	3%	Original Local CSV

The old misery index is shown with its own historical min/max scaling so its shape can be compared on the same 0-100 chart. Its raw latest value is 8.1 percentage points. Hover a month to inspect its inputs; click to pin that month for manual review. Weight edits affect the chart only; the saved snapshot is unchanged. Earlier NMI points use dynamic reweighting when modern signals do not exist; check coverage before comparing distant periods.

Dataset and weight controls

Filters and provisional weights

Dataset and weight controls

Legacy integrity rule: Older data can be mapped to modern equivalents only when the mapping is explicit and defensible. Otherwise the gap stays visible through required-dataset filters and evidence coverage.

940 month(s) after filters

Require data	Use in score	Dataset	Range	Weight %
		Household cash buffer Economic Agency	1959-01 to 2026-04
		Auto insurance five-year shock Economic Agency	1985-01 to 2026-04
		Rent burden vs worker wage Economic Agency	1981-01 to 2026-04
		Auto insurance burden vs worker wage Economic Agency	1980-01 to 2026-04
		Credit card interest pressure Economic Agency	1994-11 to 2026-05
		Rent five-year shock Economic Agency	1986-01 to 2026-04
		Grocery five-year shock Economic Agency	1957-01 to 2026-04
		Household energy-services five-year shock Economic Agency	1952-01 to 2026-04
		Car repair burden vs worker wage Economic Agency	1967-01 to 2026-04
		Car repair five-year shock Economic Agency	1972-01 to 2026-04
		Gas burden vs worker wage Economic Agency	1990-08 to 2026-04
		Gas five-year shock Economic Agency	1995-08 to 2026-05
		Median home payment burden Economic Agency	1971-04 to 2026-04
		Household energy-services burden vs worker wage Economic Agency	1964-01 to 2026-04
		Consumer debt service Economic Agency	2005-01 to 2026-05
		Auto loan interest pressure Economic Agency	1972-02 to 2026-05
		Credit card delinquency Economic Agency	1991-01 to 2026-05
		Auto loan delinquency Economic Agency	1985-01 to 2026-05
		Forced extra work proxy Economic Agency	1994-01 to 2026-04
		30-year mortgage rate reference Economic Agency	1971-04 to 2026-05
		Classic inflation reference, CPI-U YoY Economic Agency	1948-01 to 2026-04
		Grocery burden vs worker wage Economic Agency	1964-01 to 2026-04
		Labor exclusion Economic Agency	1948-01 to 2026-04
		Real worker wage level Economic Agency	1964-01 to 2026-04
		Parent child-care time Family	2003-01 to 2026-04
		Parent work time Family	2003-01 to 2026-04
		Multiple jobholders Family	1994-01 to 2026-04
		Parent-child play time Family	2003-01 to 2026-04
		Homework and school-support time Family	2003-01 to 2026-04
		Medical care CPI YoY Family	1948-01 to 2026-04
		Tuition, school fees, and childcare CPI YoY Family	1979-01 to 2026-04
		Socializing and communicating participation Community	2003-01 to 2026-04
		Civic, religious, and organizational participation Community	2003-01 to 2026-04
		School and child-event participation Community	2003-01 to 2026-04
		Volunteering participation Community	2003-01 to 2026-04
		Average weekly hours reference Community	2006-03 to 2026-04
		Prime-age labor force participation reference Community	1948-01 to 2026-04
		Public trust in government Trust	1958-12 to 2026-04
		Economic confidence Trust	1952-11 to 2026-04
		Community trust proxy Trust	2003-01 to 2026-04
		Economic policy uncertainty Trust	1985-01 to 2026-04
		Consumer confidence proxy Hopelessness	1960-01 to 2026-04
		Suicide rate Hopelessness	1950-01 to 2026-04
		VIX monthly average Hopelessness	1990-01 to 2026-05

How the calculation works

Local snapshot methodology

1. Collect monthly signals

The command-line builder downloads official FRED-hosted CSVs, BLS CPI bulk data, and CDC suicide-rate data. It also reads BLS American Time Use Survey series for family time and community life. Trust now adds Pew's public-trust chart data and FRED's economic-policy uncertainty series. It transforms price levels into worker-wage burdens and multi-year shocks, averages daily VIX values into monthly observations, and carries slower official releases forward until the next update.

2. Normalize each signal

Each series is scored from 0 to 1 against the fixed 1980-2019 baseline using its 10th and 90th percentiles. Higher-bad series rise with stress; higher-good series are inverted. If a signal is unavailable in a month, its weight is redistributed evenly across the available weighted signals in that same pillar.

3. Score five pillars

Weighted components produce five 0-20 pillar scores: economic, family, community, trust, and hopelessness. If an entire pillar is unavailable in early history, its 20 points are redistributed across the pillars that do have data, and the month is marked with lower evidence coverage.

4. Compare with the old index

The classic misery index is calculated directly as unemployment rate plus CPI-U year-over-year inflation. It is kept as a reference line, not folded into the NMI.

Dynamic reweighting rule: Missing modern series do not delete the month. Their weight is split across the signals that exist for that month, and the dashboard reports evidence coverage so early history is usable but visibly less complete.

Economic Agency pillar: 20 x (13% low cash buffer + 10% auto-insurance shock + 9% rent burden + 8% rent shock + 8% auto-insurance burden + 8% credit-card rates + 7% grocery shock + 6.5% utility shock + 5.5% car repair burden + 5% car-repair shock + 4.5% gas burden + 4% gas shock + 3.5% home-payment burden + 3% utility burden + debt and work-stress signals)

Family Strain pillar: 20 x (25% parent work time + 25% low child-care time + 15% low parent-child play time + 15% multiple jobholding + 10% low homework/school-support time + 5% childcare/education inflation + 5% medical inflation)

Community Participation pillar: 20 x (30% socializing/communicating + 25% civic/religious/organizational participation + 25% school and child-event participation + 20% volunteering)

Trust Collapse pillar: 20 x (20% community civic-life proxy + 40% public trust in government + 25% economic confidence + 15% economic-policy uncertainty)

Hopelessness pillar: 20 x (50% weak future expectations + 35% suicide-rate structural despair + 15% acute market fear)

What each pillar means

Each pillar is scored 0-20

How to read pillar scores

Every pillar ranges from 0 to 20. A low score means that pillar is near historically low strain; a high score means it is near historically high strain versus the fixed 1980-2019 baseline. The five pillars add up to the 0-100 NMI.

0-5 Low 5-10 Moderate 10-15 High 15-20 Very high

Economic Agency Loss

Current: 16.4/20 - Very high

Measures whether ordinary people have enough income, affordability, and autonomy to live without coercive dependence on debt, overwork, or unstable jobs. A low unemployment rate does not guarantee low strain if normal workers cannot afford the basics required to stay housed, fed, mobile, and employed.

Current signals: cash buffer, rent, auto insurance, utilities, groceries, gas, car repair, credit-card rates, home-payment burden, debt service, delinquencies, forced extra work.

Family Strain

Current: 7.6/20 - Moderate

Measures whether households have the time and care capacity to be families instead of just economic units. A high score means parents are pulled into work, direct child-care time or relationship time is historically low, school-support time is thin, or families need extra work and rising care costs just to keep normal life running.

Current signals: ATUS parent work time, child-care time, parent-child play time, homework/school-support time, multiple jobholding, childcare/education CPI, medical care CPI.

Community Participation

Current: 15.0/20 - Very high

Measures whether people have enough time, money, trust, and social connection to participate in ordinary shared life: school activities, community events, volunteering, worship, clubs, local organizations, neighbor relationships, and cross-group civic life. A high score should mean people are isolated, overextended, or fragmented into hostile blocs instead of participating in a shared community.

Current signals: ATUS socializing/communicating, civic/religious/organizational participation, volunteering, and school/child-event participation. Reference-only signals: prime-age LFPR and weekly hours.

Trust Collapse

Current: 20.0/20 - Very high

Measures whether people believe the systems and people around them will act in good faith. A high score means community civic life is thin, public trust in leaders is historically low, economic confidence is weak, economic-policy uncertainty is elevated, or some combination of those signals.

Current signals: ATUS civic/religious/organizational participation as a temporary community-trust proxy, Pew public trust in government, Michigan consumer sentiment, and FRED economic-policy uncertainty.

Hopelessness

Current: 18.4/20 - Very high

Measures future uncertainty and structural despair on a 0-20 range. Near 0 means people are acting like the future is worth betting on. Near 20 means expectations are historically weak, suicide-rate despair is elevated, acute fear is high, or some combination of those signals.

Current signals: consumer confidence expectations proxy, CDC suicide rate, VIX market fear.

These are monthly proxies for a broader human concept. The data layer is meant to be reviewable first; the weights are provisional and should be revised as economists and domain experts critique the framework. Community is the least complete pillar today because the strongest participation and cohesion measures are slower survey series. It now uses annual ATUS participation data carried forward monthly; NCES school involvement, CPS civic life, loneliness, and cross-group trust are still planned upgrades. Trust now has a direct public-trust measure, but generalized neighbor trust, institutional confidence, and leader-stewardship questions from CPS/GSS/ANES are still planned upgrades.

Data stewardship

Who makes the source data?

Formula and revision transparency

This app records the current published history from each source. It does not yet prove whether a source changed methodology in a specific month. The next audit layer should archive every raw download, hash it, compare old and new snapshots, and use vintage feeds such as ALFRED when available.

BLS Produces CPI, labor-force, payroll-hours, and American Time Use Survey source series. Methodology, seasonal adjustment, sample, and classification changes can affect long histories; BLS documentation is the authority.BEA Produces national income data such as the personal saving rate used for cash-buffer stress. National accounts are regularly revised, sometimes across long histories as definitions and source data improve.Federal Reserve / FRED Distributes many source series and provides convenient CSV feeds; it is often not the original data creator. FRED reflects current published histories. Vintage auditing should use ALFRED where available.CDC / NCHS Publishes mortality data used for the suicide-rate structural despair signal. Mortality data can move from provisional to final and can be affected by coding or classification revisions.Pew Research Center Publishes public-trust chart data combining Pew, NES, Gallup, media-poll, and CNN trend points. Question wording, smoothing, source mix, and latest-poll treatment matter; the app carries slower values forward monthly.University of Michigan Produces the Surveys of Consumers sentiment series used as an economic-trust signal. Survey design, sample, question wording, and release revisions should be audited from the official survey documentation.CBOE Produces the VIX market-fear series distributed through FRED. Index methodology and market-structure changes can affect interpretation across long spans.Policy Uncertainty Project Produces the Baker-Bloom-Davis economic policy uncertainty index distributed through FRED. Text-based methodology and source coverage should be treated as a model, not a direct household survey.

100-year path

Legacy mode, not silent substitution

What changed now

The scorer no longer requires every modern series to exist in every month. It can extend backward using available evidence and shows coverage for thin periods.

What still blocks 1920s NMI

Family time, community participation, modern consumer sentiment, VIX, and several affordability details do not have clean monthly 1920s equivalents.

How to reach 100 years

Add a legacy source catalog: CPI and unemployment backcasts, suicide rates, historical wages/hours, marriage/divorce/fertility, school enrollment, civic membership, and newspaper or survey-based trust proxies.

How to label it

Treat pre-modern months as a lower-confidence legacy index with visible evidence coverage, not as the exact same measurement density as the modern dashboard.

Largest current drivers

Contribution to latest score

Signal	Pillar	Raw	Eff. weight	Misery
Consumer confidence proxy	Hopelessness	53.58 Percentage balance	50.ToString("F1")%	100%
Public trust in government	Trust	17.00 Percent	40.ToString("F1")%	100%
Suicide rate	Hopelessness	13.70 Deaths per 100,000	35.ToString("F1")%	100%
Socializing and communicating participation	Community	29.90 Percent participating	30.ToString("F1")%	100%
Civic, religious, and organizational participation	Community	12.70 Percent participating	25.ToString("F1")%	100%
Economic confidence	Trust	49.80 Index	25.ToString("F1")%	100%
Volunteering participation	Community	5.00 Percent participating	20.ToString("F1")%	100%
Community trust proxy	Trust	12.70 Percent participating	20.ToString("F1")%	100%

Recent history

Latest complete months

Month	NMI	Economic	Family	Classic	Trust	Coverage
2026-04	77.4	16.4	7.6	8.1	20.0	100%
2026-03	78.0	16.1	7.4	7.6	20.0	100%
2026-02	76.5	15.7	7.5	6.8	20.0	100%
2026-01	76.2	15.6	7.9	6.7	20.0	100%
2025-12	76.7	15.9	8.1	7.1	20.0	100%
2025-11	78.3	16.1	8.8	7.2	20.0	100%
2025-10	75.6	13.2	9.3	0.0	20.0	86%
2025-09	76.8	15.9	8.2	7.4	20.0	100%
2025-08	76.4	15.9	8.2	7.2	19.7	100%
2025-07	75.8	15.8	7.5	7.0	19.7	100%
2025-06	76.7	15.7	8.1	6.8	19.7	100%
2025-05	76.9	15.8	7.8	6.7	19.7	100%

Web sources

Bounds: 1980-01 to 2019-12

Planned official connectors

Tracked, not silently substituted

BLS Day Care and Preschool CPI Exact BLS series CUUR0000SEEB03 is official but is not exposed through FRED's simple CSV endpoint. Family NCES Parent and Family Involvement in Education Measures whether families participate in school activities, meetings, events, and education-related community life. Community CPS Volunteering and Civic Life Supplement Measures volunteering, group participation, civic engagement, neighbor contact, and interaction across backgrounds. The Census API now requires a key for data queries, so this needs a configured local key or file import. Community Household Pulse Social Connection Measures social support, loneliness, and isolation; useful as a recent high-frequency connection proxy. Community GSS trust and confidence series Direct generalized trust and institutional confidence questions would improve the community and leader-trust subscores. Trust ANES leader stewardship questions Measures whether government is run for all people or by a few big interests; useful as a slower leadership-stewardship signal. Trust NFIB Small Business Optimism Official monthly reports exist, but the public data feed is not a simple FRED CSV endpoint. Trust Conference Board Expectations Index Use when a stable official download/API path is selected. Hopelessness ALFRED vintage audit layer Needed to detect whether FRED-hosted source histories changed after a later revision or methodology update. Trust NBER Macrohistory Database Potential source for pre-1948 unemployment, wage, price, and production proxies for a 100-year legacy index. Economic Agency CDC/NCHS Historical Vital Statistics Potential source for suicide and mortality history before the current CDC API window. Hopelessness NHGIS and historical Census tables Potential source for long-run family, school, household, migration, and community-structure proxies. Community